Patriots vs. Dolphins -6 (-146) at Caesars Sportsbook
With Tua Tagovailoa back, the Dolphins have turned into a trustworthy team and a team in the playoff race. They’re averaging nearly 28 points per game over their last four games with Tagovailoa back from his latest concussion. There is no reason to think that they won’t keep rolling, especially since they know that virtually every game is a must-win game for them. We’ve teased the line below a touchdown just to be safe, but Miami should be in good shape.
Keep in mind that the Dolphins beat the Patriots 15-10 earlier this season with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. They should be able to beat New England by a bigger margin this week. While Drake Maye has shown some promise, he’s not been good enough to lead his team to a road win against a quality opponent. It’s also worth noting the Patriots only have two wins in their last 11 trips to Miami. Since Tom Brady left the Pats, all four of Miami’s home wins over New England have come by at least nine points, so this feels like a safe margin.
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Titans vs. Texans -8 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
The Texans went through a little bit of a rough patch, but they seem to be out of it after a 34-10 blowout of the Cowboys on Monday night. C.J. Stroud still isn’t performing at his peak level, but with Joe Mixon and the running game, the Texans can get by against bad teams like the Titans. Teasing the spread down a few points could provide a little insurance. But Houston has covered the spread in three of the last four games it’s been favored.
Equally important, the Titans are still among the worst teams in the NFL. They’ve lost five of their last six games with four of those five losses coming by at least 10 points. Tennessee is averaging just 15.2 points per game across those six games. There are no signs that the Titans will suddenly be capable of scoring more than that this week, which is why it’s safe to bet on the Texans winning by a wide margin and covering the spread.
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Cowboys vs. Commanders -10 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Things keep getting worse for the Cowboys. They’ve now lost five in a row, including three losses by 24 points or more. Dallas has scored a total of 16 points in the two games Cooper Rush has started, providing no reason for optimism. The Dallas defense has failed to rise to the occasion, conceding an average of 34.4 points per game during the team’s five-game losing streak. Naturally, the Cowboys are 0-5 against the spread during their current losing streak, which is why they are a safe team to bet against.
To be fair, the Commanders have lost their last two games. But that could just make them more likely not to overlook the Cowboys. Keep in mind they lost to two quality teams. Meanwhile, Washington has blowout wins against the Cardinals, Browns, and Panthers this season, so the Commanders know how to take care of business against bad teams. Also, the Commanders played on Thursday last week while Dallas played on Monday and must travel this week. That’s another advantage that should help the Commanders dominate and cover the double-digit spread.
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Vikings vs. Bears Under 45.5 (-258) at Caesars Sportsbook
We’ve teased the over/under just a little for this game, although this feels like it will be a defensive slugfest. Caleb Williams showed some improvement last week, but he’s clearly hit a wall in his development as a rookie. As a result, the Bears haven’t scored more than 20 points in four straight games. They now face a stingy Minnesota defense that’s limited opponents to 13 points or less in three straight games.
On the other side, the Bears have been one of the more underrated defensive teams in the NFL this season. The Cardinals are the only team in 10 games to score more than 21 points against Chicago. That’s a trend that should continue against the Vikings. Sam Darnold has had some good moments this year, but the Minnesota offense has looked sluggish over the past month. The Vikings have averaged just 19 points per game in their last four games, relying mostly on their defense. In the end, it’ll be a struggle for either side to get beyond 20 points, making it safe to bet under 45.5 total points.
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2024-11-20 10:14:00