MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (August 16) – Yurika.R

Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 16, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Sean Manaea is 10-0 (+10.00 units) as a favorite of -180 or more at home in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-238 vs. MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-CHC, LAD-STL

Trend: Gerrit Cole is 28-6 (+12.40 units) vs. AL Central teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 at DET)

Trend: TEX trending Under at home (20-37 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 172-166 run (+33.78 units, ROI: 10%).
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-130 vs. SEA)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 301-151 (66.6%) for +38.40 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-135 vs. KC)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

• Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
• Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
• Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
• Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
• Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
• Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-250 vs. CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs. TOR), CINCINNATI (-135 vs. KC), MINNESOTA (+102 at TEX), CLEVELAND (-115 at MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-278 vs. WSH), HOUSTON (-250 vs. CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-130 vs. SEA), TEXAS (-122 vs. MIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-CHC, LAD-STL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 93-50 for -18.04 units and an ROI of -12.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-278 vs. WSH), NY METS (-238 vs. MIA), NY YANKEES (-192 at DET), BALTIMORE (-218 vs. BOS)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/14, the record of this angle is again positive at 83-32 for +0.62 units (huge road favorite loss of -360 by NYY on 8/12).
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-250 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 54-33 since opening day 2024 and has lost -16.23 units, an ROI of -18.7%. While still solid results, this angle has cooled of late.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-250 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 264-314 record for -11.85 units (ROI -2.1%). This is performing below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-105 at TEX), SEATTLE (+110 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-108 vs. AZ), MILWAUKEE (-102 vs. CLE)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 236-251 record for +6.61 units (ROI 1.4%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-105 at TEX), SEATTLE (+110 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-108 vs. AZ), MILWAUKEE (-102 vs. CLE)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 143-168 for -18.89 units. The three-game teams are 75-75 for +3.40 units.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE DETROIT (+160 vs. NYY), FADE TORONTO (-105 at CHC), FADE ARIZONA (-112 at TB), FADE CLEVELAND (-118 at MIL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 157-142 for -19.52 units (-6.5% ROI) through Thursday, 8/15. We have seen far more lengthy losing streaks this season as compared to winning streaks, and I believe that is greatly affecting this system.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-135 vs. KC), HOUSTON (-250 vs. CWS), SAN DIEGO (-175 at COL)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 149 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/14 and these teams are 82-67 for +5.67 units. This angle was stuck in neutral for most of the early part of the season but has enjoyed a 37-23, +10.20-unit performance over the last eight weeks or so.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs TOR), SEATTLE (+110 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-108 vs. AZ)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1632-1524 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -187.36 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-278 vs. WSH), NY YANKEES (-192 at DET), TORONTO (-105 at CHC), CINCINNATI (-135 vs. KC), ARIZONA (-112 at TB)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1528-1973 (43.6%) for -193.89 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (+110 at PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at HOU), BOSTON (+164 at BAL), ATLANTA (-148 at LAA)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3294-2888 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -436.47 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-135 vs. KC), BALTIMORE (-198 vs. BOS), NY METS (-238 vs. MIA), MILWAUKEE (-102 vs. CLE), PHILADELPHIA (-278 vs. WSH)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 920-807 (53.3%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +2.60 units for backers and an ROI of 0.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-108 vs. AZ), DETROIT (+160 vs. NYY), HOUSTON (-250 vs. CWS), LA ANGELS (+124 vs. ATL)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 469-402 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +13.73 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-108 vs. AZ), TEXAS (-122 vs. MIN)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 301-151 (66.6%) for +38.40 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-135 vs. KC)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage. They are just 64-146 (-65.89 units, ROI: -31.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (-130 vs SEA)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 172-166 run (+33.78 units, ROI: 10%).
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-130 vs SEA)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 143-156 (+6.64 units, ROI: 2.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 vs. LAD)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 189-105 (+5.58 units, ROI: 1.9%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-250 vs. CWS)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 179-117 in their last 296 tries (+26.41 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-250 vs CWS)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 79-90 (-46.64 units, ROI: -27.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-112 at TB)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +225 (+30 diff), MIAMI +195 (+15 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +225 (+40 diff), TAMPA BAY -108 (+30 diff), MILWAUKEE -105 (+20 diff), LA ANGELS +124 (+16 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -115 (+15 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-DET OVER 8 (+0.8), TOR-CHC OVER 9.5 (+0.6), AZ-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.6), CLE-MIL OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) WASHINGTON (55-67) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (71-50)
Trend: Under the total is on a 6-2 run in the WSH-PHI series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(953) MIAMI (45-76) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (62-59)
Trend: MIA bad vs. LH starters (9-32, -22.06 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+195 at NYM)

(955) LOS ANGELES-NL (71-51) at (956) ST LOUIS (60-61)
Trend: STL is 12-7 as a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 vs LAD)

(959) NEW YORK-AL (72-50) at (960) DETROIT (59-63)
Trend: NYY better bet on the road (40-23, +9.65 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 at DET)

(961) BOSTON (63-57) at (962) BALTIMORE (72-50)
Trend: BOS slight Over on the road (34-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(963) MINNESOTA (68-53) at (964) TEXAS (56-66)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (20-37 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(965) CHICAGO-AL (29-93) at (966) HOUSTON (65-55)
Trend: CWS terrible on the road (11-49, -32.25 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+205 at HOU)

(967) TORONTO (57-64) at (968) CHICAGO-NL (59-63)
Trend: CHC better vs. AL teams (21-13, +9.61 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs TOR)

(969) KANSAS CITY (66-55) at (970) CINCINNATI (60-61)
Trend: CIN more Under vs. AL teams (9-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(973) ARIZONA (69-53) at (974) TAMPA BAY (59-61)
Trend: AZ has been on a tear (16-4 record in the last 20 games)
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-112 at TB)

(975) CLEVELAND (72-49) at (976) MILWAUKEE (69-52)
Trend: Over the total is 11-6 when MIL is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(977) ATLANTA (64-57) at (978) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-69)
Trend: LAA not as good at home (26-38, -10.03 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+124 vs. ATL)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) WASHINGTON (55-67) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (71-50)
Trend: WSH is 10-38 (-26.66 units) vs. Divisional opponents with starter Patrick Corbin since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+225 at PHI)

(953) MIAMI (45-76) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (62-59)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 10-0 (+10.00 units) as a favorite of -180 or more at home in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-238 vs MIA)

(957) SAN DIEGO (69-53) at (958) COLORADO (44-78)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is profitable in the +135 to +145 line range (9-5 record, +7.55 units) in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-122 vs. MIN)

(959) NEW YORK-AL (72-50) at (960) DETROIT (59-63)
Trend: Gerrit Cole is 28-6 (+12.40 units) vs. AL Central teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 at DET)

(963) MINNESOTA (68-53) at (964) TEXAS (56-66)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 19-32 (-15.80 units) vs teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-122 vs. MIN)

(971) SEATTLE (63-59) at (972) PITTSBURGH (56-64)
Trend: SEA is 29-15 (+19.20 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons (including 14-6 (+9.21 units) on the road within -105 to +115 line range)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+110 at PIT)

(975) CLEVELAND (72-49) at (976) MILWAUKEE (69-52)
Trend: CLE is 2-7 (-4.85 units) against teams with a win percentage of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-118 at MIL)

Trend: Aaron Civale is 19-8 (+4.07 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (*if they become a favorite, -102 currently)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, 8/19)