Mirroring the results of recent polling, offshore bettors now think Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump in November’s presidential election.
The odds on Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform, swung in favor of the vice president on Saturday night as she and running mate Tim Walz concluded their four-day tour of five battleground states.
As of Tuesday at 10 a.m. EDT, the betting – which legally can’t be done in the U.S. – put the likelihood of Harris winning the election at 52% and Trump’s at 45%. A month ago, bettors placed Trump’s odds of winning as high as 71%.
2024 presidential election predictions
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The odds on Polymarket represent current betting patterns and don’t suggest a potential margin of victory as polling does, but the outlooks for Harris and Trump changed significantly in the past four weeks. The bets closely track the movements of Real Clear Politics’ poll average.
How presidential odds track with recent polling
The gap between Trump and the Democratic candidate on Polymarket has been closing since July 21 when President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. By Sunday, the odds also flipped in favor of Harris on five other betting sites where she’s listed as a narrow favorite to win the presidency.
Election odds turn slightly toward a Harris victory
Will Trump win? Odds nearly as accurate as a coin flip so far
Within this election cycle, the Polymarket bettors predicted days in advance that Ohio Sen. JD Vance would become Trump’s running mate and Harris would become the Democratic nominee. Conversely, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was a runaway favorite on the betting site – except for just the penultimate day when Walz held the lead.
Real Clear Politics notes that on Aug. 13, Biden led Trump by more than 7 points in 2020. On the same date in 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by just under 7 points.
Harris became the favorite four days before Biden dropped out
Bettors, as well as American voters, still have much more to consider between now and Nov. 4 – from the Democratic National Convention next week to the first Trump-Harris debate scheduled for Sept. 10.
Democratic National Convention coming up
We’re just a week away from the DNC where Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are expected to accept the Democratic nomination for the presidential election.
Fox – 5 Atlanta
How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The two upsets came in 1948 when Democrat Harry Truman beat eight-to-one odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey, and in 2016 when Trump overcame seven-to-two odds to beat Hillary Clinton.
Contributing: James Powel
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2024-08-14 12:47:10